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During his election campaign, the former president promised to eschew costly and frequently catastrophic foreign armed engagements such as those in Iraq and Afghanistan. This promise formed a key component of his isolationist “America first” policy. Yet soon after taking office, American military units carried out attacks in Yemen and Iran. Turning to the south, Trump threatened to seize the Panama Canal. Now, the Pentagon is getting ready for possible strikes against alleged “terrorist” drug cartels deep inside Colombia and Mexico. Of greatest urgent worry is a possible renewed White House attempt to enforce a new government in Venezuela.

The Venezuelan Reaction and Rising Strains

Venezuela's president, the nation's hard-left authoritarian leader, claims that this effort is already under way. He says that the US is conducting an “undeclared war” against his country following multiple lethal attacks against Venezuelan ships in the high seas. Trump recently informed Congress that America is involved in hostilities with drug cartels. He states, without proof, that the attacked boats transported drugs bound for the US – and that the Venezuelan leader is responsible. The administration has placed a multimillion-dollar reward for Maduro’s head.

Regional governments are nervously monitoring a major American armed forces build-up around Venezuela, featuring naval vessels, F-35 combat aircraft, an attack submarine and 2,200 marines. Such powerful assets are hardly much use for anti-drug operations. But they could be used offensively, or else to assist commando operations and bombing runs. On Thursday, Venezuela alleged Washington of an “illegal incursion” by several F-35s. Maduro states he is preparing a state of emergency to “protect our people” if Venezuela comes under attack from the United States.

Questioning the Reasons For the Actions

What exactly is Trump up to? Narcotics trafficking is a serious problem – yet killing people arbitrarily in international waters, although frequent and difficult to prosecute, remains illegal. And anyway, United Nations reports state the majority of the cocaine entering the US originates in Colombia, Peru and Ecuador, and is mostly not trafficked through Venezuela. Trump, a former draft-dodger, likes to act the tough commander-in-chief. Currently, he is trying to deport Venezuelan migrants, a large number originally fled to America to escape economic measures he previously imposed. Experts suggest he covets Venezuela’s vast oil, gas and mineral resources.

Indeed that Trump and John Bolton, attempted to oust Maduro in 2019 in an event Caracas claimed a regime change plot. Additionally, Maduro’s recent electoral win was widely condemned as fraudulent. Given a free choice, the people would almost certainly vote out him. Furthermore, opposing political beliefs play a role, too. The leader, poor heir to his predecessor's Bolivarian revolution, is an affront to Trump’s imperial idea of a US-dominated the Americas, in which the 1823 Monroe doctrine is revived and free-market economics operates without restraint.

Absence of Clear Planning

However given his inept blundering on other major international issues, the most likely reason for the president's behavior is that, as usual, he hasn’t got a clue about his actions – in Venezuela or the region overall. There’s no plan. He throws his weight about, takes rash decisions, stokes fear about immigrants and bases policy on whether he “likes” other leaders. Previously, when the Venezuelan leader on the ropes, the US president backed down. Now, large-scale armed involvement in Venezuela remains unlikely. More probable is an intensified campaign of coercion of destabilization, penalties, naval attacks, and aerial and special forces operations.

Instead of weakening and isolating Maduro's government, Trump may achieve the reverse. Maduro is already exploiting the crisis to assume authoritarian emergency authority and mobilize public opinion with nationalist calls for unity. Trump’s bullying towards other left-leaning Latin American countries – like Colombia – and presumptuous cheerleading for conservative leaders in Argentina and El Salvador – is spurring pushback across the continent, too. The majority of nations detest the thought of a return to the past era of Yanqui interference in the hemisphere.

Latin American Reaction and Foreign Policy Failures

The administration's attempt to use punitive tariffs and sanctions to strong-arm Brazil to pardoning its disgraced hard-right leader Jair Bolsonaro failed spectacularly recently. Huge crowds took to the streets in Brazilian urban centers to defend what they perceived as an attack on Brazilian sovereignty and rule of law. Public support of Bolsonaro’s successor, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, increased. “We are not, and will never become, anyone’s colony,” he declared. Lula effectively told the US president, essentially, to get lost. Then, at their meeting during the United Nations summit, the American leader retreated and was conciliatory.

The view of a significant regression in inter-American ties increases ineluctably. “His administration sees the region mainly as a security threat, associating it with drug trafficking, organised crime and incoming migration,” an analyst cautioned recently. American policy is essentially negative, prioritizing unilateral action and control instead of cooperation,” she said, noting: Latin America is viewed not as an equal partner and rather as a zone of control to be controlled according to US strategic interests.”

Hawkish Officials and Rising Language

Trump’s hawkish advisers contribute to the issue: especially Stephen Miller, administration deputy chief of staff, and the secretary of state, a former lawmaker for Florida who is top diplomat and national security adviser. For Rubio, a longtime critic of leftwing governments in Cuba and Nicaragua, Maduro remains a target. Defending the naval strikes, he stated: Seizures are ineffective. What will stop them is when you blow them up … And it’ll happen again.” Coming from the top US diplomat, these are strong words.

Long-term Implications

The president's attempts to revive the role of Latin American neighbourhood policeman, copying ex-leader Theodore Roosevelt – an interventionist serial interventionist – are backward-looking, risky and self-defeating. In the future, the big winner will most likely be Beijing, an increasingly influential regional actor, economic partner and leading member of the international bloc of nations. As the US burns its bridges globally, Trump is helping China great again.