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The upcoming Game Awards, scheduled on December 11, appears highly unpredictable. At first, Grand Theft Auto 6 had been expected to sweep the show, but a delay into 2026 has dramatically altered the landscape. This turn of events paves the way for a considerably more open race for the highly sought-after Game of the Year award.

The process involves a international group of games media from around the world, alongside a small percentage of fan input. Various trends often predict which games shine in the GOTY competition. A strong aggregate review score—optimally over 90—is virtually mandatory. Role-playing games and narrative action games usually receive strong support, while independent and multiplayer titles face greater challenges compared to AAA story-focused games. These metrics correctly anticipated last year's victor, Astro Bot.

Here are projections for the half-dozen most probable contenders for 2025's top honor. Differing from the Oscars, where the majority of hopefuls are known long before voting, video games typically demonstrate their appeal only after release. Thus, this list features exclusively games that have come out. We will update throughout the coming months if upcoming releases hit the market. Also included are several probable upcoming contenders and under-the-radar picks.

Leading Candidates

1. Clair Obscur: Expedition 33

Why it could win: A celebrated narrative adventure, masterful with character development and voice acting, thought-provoking yet fun, with high technical quality—it has all the qualities of a Game of the Year masterpiece. As a remarkable feat from a debut studio, which further boosts its charm. Comparable to last year's Metaphor was well-received in 2024. The game seems a formidable opponent.

Potential drawbacks: While it's a successful release, enough people must play Expedition 33—particularly among critics—to maintain its presence in the discussion for longer than six months. Xbox access will help, but is it truly big enough to come out on top?

Momentum (stable): The game is a polished product, fans keep enjoying and praising it, and prediction markets are strongly backing its success. It is comfortable in the lead.

2. Hollow Knight's sequel

Positive factors: This studio's extremely anticipated sequel to its acclaimed indie hit might easily dominate at The Game Awards, in part because the first game didn't make much of impact back then and the panel may be eager to now honor it. Journalists overwhelmingly love it, sales have been incredibly strong, and its release was a huge occasion that captured the gaming talk for an extended period.

Weaknesses: The game is notoriously difficult, which has split some critics and may further alienate the voters. A lot of players struggle with the game or feel irritated by it, and the surrounding discussion has been somewhat divisive.

Momentum (new entry): Hardly any 2025 games have had such an impact as Team Cherry's release, and it's unlikely that any others will. The surprise launch was brilliantly orchestrated for greatest effect, but the omission of review copies for critics means its critical reputation could shift over time.

3. Donkey Kong's latest

Why it could win: With a average of 90 or more on each of review aggregators, this game has the necessary level of praise to contend. This is expected for a Nintendo platformer, which counts against it. But, with its chaotic gameplay, return of Donkey Kong as a main hero, and status as a flagship title for a next-gen system, it has more freshness than your average platforming game, and makes for a more notable story.

Weaknesses: Kid-friendly platformers tend to underperform in GOTY competitions, due to perceived immaturity and less complex plots. Astro Bot went against that trend, but two wins in a row seems unlikely. Also, Nintendo’s excellence is often assumed.

Performance (slipping No. 2): The game may keep momentum better than some other games as more people acquire new consoles, but disappointing DLC has damaged its reputation slightly.

4. Kojima's sequel

Why it could win: This auteur's sequel to his controversial 2019 sci-fi epic about connecting across a post-apocalyptic world is both grander and more palatable than the first game. A visually astounding, absorbing, ambitious thoughtful experience, with rave reviews, published by Sony… it’s got all the features of a serious Game of the Year hopeful, and it comes from the best-known creative visionary still working.

Issues: Next to Clair Obscur's grassroots appeal, Death Stranding 2 feels like the safe choice, despite its many quirks. And the closeness between Kojima and the show host might make some critics feel uncomfortable about backing it.

Trend (declining No. 3): Death Stranding 2's critical scores have moderated a little since launch. And it’s not clear that the game has significantly broken out beyond its existing supporters.

5. Split Fiction

Why it could win: Uniform praise is still the most accurate signal of success at The Game Awards, and with a rating exceeding 90 on {Metacritic and OpenCritic|aggregate sites